The bond rally in EUR rates found confirmation in the softer German and Spanish inflation estimates for November. They point to a larger-than-expected drop in today’s eurozone flash estimate. For the European Central Bank that means 2024 could bring a first rate cut. Whether this will be as early as the market currently prices remains questionable though. A first rate cut is close to being fully discounted now for April. Overall some 110bp in cuts are discounted for the year as a whole.