The November inflation print came in far below expectations, and on the surface, it seems like Christmas came early for the ECB with a broad-based decline in inflation. Yet, we remain cautious and try not to be carried away by one good print. Closely approaching year-end, economic activity in the euro area is stagnating after a strong recovery in 2021 and 2022 following the pandemic. Real GDP contracted in Q3, indicating that the yearly growth rate is close to 0%, reflecting how the ECB's restrictive monetary policy is working its way through the economy.