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Post Date: 03 April 2024

National HICP data published so far indicate that our forecast for March inflation for the eurozone is probably too high. Instead of stabilizing at 2.6% yoy, headline inflation likely declined to 2.4-2.5%, while core inflation might have eased to 2.9-3.0% vs. our forecast of 3.1%. It seems that food-price inflation slowed even more than we originally expected, while the Easter effect on prices of holiday-related services was probably quite moderate. Today’s data should strengthen the ECB’s conviction that disinflation is on the right track, making a rate cut in June almost a done deal (11:00 CET).

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