Today, the ECB left its monetary policy unchanged and paved the way for a rate cut at the June meeting. The central bank did not want to send any signals about the rate path beyond the timing of the first cut. Given the uncertainty that surrounds the pace of disinflation in services, the geopolitical environment and the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory, we stick to our view that the ECB’s easing cycle will proceed slowly, probably at a pace of 25bp per quarter. We continue to see the deposit rate declining to 3.25% by the end of the year and to 2.25% by end-2025.